Communist Italy

[sideshowbob9]

Hi guys, one of the what if scenarios I'm playing around with and hope to model is a bisected, half-communist half-democratic post-war Italy.

Essentially, what if the Soviets swept South, say '44ish (either no or reduced co-belligerency in this scenario) and occupied Yugoslavia and northern Italy, meeting the Allies about half way down the country to form a divided, occupied state similar to what Germany would become a year later?

In this scenario, southern Italy becomes a member of NATO and northern Italy the Warsaw Pact.

Below are two candidate roundels for a Sovietised Italian air force I'm thinking of using. Which one do you guys think is better?







Thanks.

[Geoff]

I like the bottom one.

[sideshowbob9]

Alternate 3:




Allies:

[Geoff]

number 3

[sideshowbob9]

^Thanks. Was leaning toward number 3 myself 

[Sauragnmon]

I like One and Three, personally...  Of course, it would also be reasonable that Austria in your scenario might be either partially or fully occupied by the Soviets, with their positioning.  Germany might well not have been divided, with a swept position like that for the Soviets... if they went north, through Austria, and focused as West as possibly, they could cut off the Allied advance and sweep in from the East at the same time - Patton's Push for Berlin might have been cut short.

[sideshowbob9]

I was playing with the idea of Austria being occupied but it never occured to me this scenario could affect Germany!

I like your idea of the Soviets biting off a larger chunk of Germany. Could make for an earlier and perhaps hotter entry into the Cold War. As I recall, Patton had no love for the Soviets.

On the other side of the coin, the Soviets sweep to the south could leave them over-extended further north, leaving more Germany for Patton & co. than historically.

Food for thought.

[Sauragnmon]

It would certainly make for a few interesting differences - Steyr being a Soviet Weapons producer, and a few other things.  In reality, if you think about it, the Soviets were massively outnumbering the Germans, so in effect, the Southern Extension could well double the effect because they would have made the Germans overextend their Ostfront defensives, the Soviets having blasted in from the side against sites like the Gothic Line would have left them at a disadvantage, which also would have cut off retreat out of Italy, leading to a significantly higher attritional factor either by capture or death, against the German lines.  The Soviets then would ostensibly had much further ground to cover, and if they continued to affect a division of the German lines, pushing North around the Swiss Border in an effort to cut off the Allies or Claim More of Germany, it would have affected areas notably in the South, or around Bavaria, where the Soviets would have likely pushed North into the Rhineland in an effort to likely surround more Germans and cut them off when coming through the Czech front and through Prussia - you might see a resistance pocket in Bohemia or such areas, and if you look at it, the Soviets would Still be concentrating force as the German Lines get shortened if they push up the center through Bohemia or West through Bavaria - BMW-engined Sturmoviks anybody?  The Soviets ostensibly would have also had access to places like the Genoan Shipyards, which could have affected the naval growth of the Soviet Union at that point, or other such resources. 

It would have been interesting to see Bradley run into Zhukov in Southern Germany, and it would be a very questionable situation if there had been no cold war but instead run right from Smashing Germany into East vs West - the Soviets would quite ostensibly have held the land front, as they were leading in respects to armor and such developments, and it quite well could have changed some of the Soviet Tank Doctrine, in some ways.  Additionally, tanks like the IS-3 would have seen refinements right off the starting block if their catches had been revealed immediately, and they would have rather brutally taken the Allies off guard with their design, much like the shock when they were first revealed in the Berlin Parade, except by and large bloodier.

[comrade harps]

I have a Red Italiy in my scenario and use a green dot in a red star, partly because I've got the decals to do it and because some of the Warsaw Pact did use national colours as centre dots on on a red star.

[sideshowbob9]

This all stemmed from me wanting to do an Italian Il-10   but it obviously has the potential to be far more far-reaching than that!


Here's my idea for a communist-controlled Austrian roundel:




What do you guys think?

Mods, maybe we could move this thread to the Alt. History section? I'd like for people to continue to post how they think this scenario would pan out.

[nev]

Well, don't forget that for several decades after the war, the Italian communist party was a significant minority party (up to 30% support at times).  Indeed it is speculated that only the combined efforts of the CIA and Roman Catholic Church kept the Communists out of power in the first post-war elections. 

I remember reading an article in an old 70s aviation magazine on the Italian AF talking about the NATO fear of a Communist Italy.

BTW, love the Red Austrian roundel, not so keen on the Italian ones - they all look too close to the likes of Bulgaria for me

[sideshowbob9]

^ Interesting! Maybe after an initial "cold" standoff period, there could be a communist uprising. Vietnam could take a backseat to the Italian Crisis!

Thanks. I thought the Austrian one may have been a little OTT with the red.

Bulgaria is this one n'est pas?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Bulgarian_Air_Force_roundel.svg

[Geoff]

IIRC I had the Italians involved in a low intesity civilwar along the Inter-Italian border with the country divided about the level of Firenza. With the north being communist, except for a small enclave in the north west of the country that had been occupied by the US Army in '45.
So I had Italian People's Liberation Army Laggs, and the newly reformed Regia Aeronautica with Meteors and P-51s.

[sideshowbob9]

^ Great minds think alike! Except in mine the Regia Aeronautica retains its indigenous types along with a large stock of surplus P-39/63s (at least in the immediate post-war period).

[Geoff]

^ Great minds think alike! Except in mine the Regia Aeronautica retains its indigenous types along with a large stock of surplus P-39/63s (at least in the immediate post-war period).