avatar_Ian the Kiwi Herder

Following the 'Credit Crunch' ?

Started by Ian the Kiwi Herder, November 09, 2008, 01:47:40 AM

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Ian the Kiwi Herder

Thought I'd run this up the flagpole..... see who salutes  :blink: Not as much an Alternative History, more of a Possible Future. Please feel free to develop your own ideas. Let's see where this goes.

Ian

A New Arms Race ?
(A Possible Scenario Following the Global Financial Crisis)


Background

August 2008
The first hints of an imminent global financial crisis begin to surface.

September 2008
Banks and major financial institutions across the world begin to falter, some collapse. Financial markets in chaos as the scale of the disaster becomes more apparent.

October 2008
Iceland virtually bankrupt. US Congress turns-down two rescue plans put forward by President Bush. UK Government bails out six British banks, effectively part nationalising them. The Finance ministries of Bulgaria, Hungary & Romania, who have moved a majority of their 'interests' out of London in favour of the Icelandic banks, lose virtually all of their investments.

November 2008
Bulgaria Hungary & Romania effectively bankrupt.

'Swords for Ploughshares'

January 2009
Desperately casting around to raise foreign currency, their own being almost completely without value, Bulgaria Hungary & Romania form an agency to 'sell-off' whatever they can. Amongst the first items perceived as having a 'certain value' was top-end military hardware.

Quickly re-forming their alliance from the 1990's, Israel Aircraft Industries and Armcor of South Africa and a number of other private and corporate backers, approach Bulgaria Hungary & Romania with an offer. In return for payment in Rand, gold, platinum or diamonds – easily transferable and 'bullet-proof' in times of financial armageddon – IAI/Armcor have their pick of those countries equipment.

The American Position

Attempted assassination of President Elect Barack Obama at his inauguration by "a lone gunman". Suicide bombers attack at Cape Kennedy Space Centre; seventeen (mostly) Japanese tourists are killed. A second attack at the San Diego Zoo is partly foiled when only the detonator explodes, killing the bomber. In the wake of these attacks the new administration bows to public and Congressional pressure and adopt an active 'isolationist' policy.

February 2009 onward
Almost all US combat forces in Iraq & Afghanistan withdrawn. Token forces, only, remain in Europe & Turkey and Central America.

MiG's for Sale or Exchange

March 2009
Amongst the spoils, that arrive on container vessels in Cape Town some eight weeks later are seventy-four MiG 29's, an undisclosed number of SA-11 missiles & launchers, six medium sized assault Hovercraft and arriving later, under their own power, four virtually brand new Neustrashimy class frigates.

March 2009 onward
IAI & South African engineers re-commence their programme of 'westernising' the MiG's with a view to offering for sell/lease

July 2009
Reuters, Johannesburg
"Armcor of South Africa has announced that it has signed contracts with three Latin American and two African nations for the sale of refurbished, former Eastern European advanced military equipment.

Although not confirmed as yet, it is strongly believed that one of these nations has offered Armcor and its partner company, Israel Aircraft Industries a guaranteed supply of oil as payment in part."


August 2009
Two Neustrashimy class frigates enter the Venezuelan Naval Base at Puerto Cabello.

MiG 29's reported operating from Managua, Nicaragua and Santa Lucia, Mexico.






"When the Carpet Monster tells you it's full....
....it's time to tidy the workbench"

Confuscious (maybe)

Hman

Some quick thoughts...

So the 'west' has to decide, does it spend money on new kit i.e. JSF, which while according to sales hype is just what is required (but a few years from service) or go for upgrades on proven weapon systems?  Harrier GR11 anyone...

Will the EU stick together or go their own way?   I recall that they all met and agreed to a set of interest rates and then within 24hrs all did their own thing! 

So would the EU defence industry work together or will national self interest take over, i.e. EU (& even NATO) becomes increasing fractured as member states look after themselves.  New members of the EU/NATO (from the old eastern block) start selling of 'surplus military kit' to make ends meet, which the various EU member defence companies pick up cheap, upgrade and sell on at a profit.
"Lusaka Tower, this is Green Leader..."

gunfighter

I think that european countries really don´t have to spend that much on hardware to maintain a credible air power. By now, we have a tier 1 aircraft (the typhoon), and a tier 2 cheaper jet (the gripen). If you find out that you cannot afford the jsf which is becoming too expensive, many governments could decide to buy these two fighters, loan them from the main operators (UK), or build a shared force to ensure air defence at least with a lower price. By now, NATO is defending the baltic countries in this way.
Oh, for me the fulcrum is a very overrated plane. I´d be much more concerned about flankers or even PAK FAs, if china or india funds it.

bluntie

Jeez Ian,
             made the hairs on the back of my neck stand up reading that!
             as history has shown where finances are concerned, big trouble usualy brings an us and them/every man for himself/keep your hands off my stack /shore up the defences type of reaction.
Great thinking/writing mate. :cheers:
my hovercraft is full of eels

dragon

It sounds plausible.
However, the two Frigates entering Puerto Cabello Naval Base would probably be owned by the Venezuelan Navy.  BTW you do know that Hugo is buying some Kilos?
"As long as people are going to call you a lunatic anyway, why not get the benefits of it?  It liberates you from convention."- from the novel WICKED by Gregory Maguire.
  
"I must really be crazy to be in a looney bin like this" - Jack Nicholson in the movie ONE FLEW OVER THE CUCKOO'S NEST

Ian the Kiwi Herder

Quote from: dragon on November 09, 2008, 10:12:54 PM
the two Frigates entering Puerto Cabello Naval Base would probably be owned by the Venezuelan Navy. 
Precisely  :o

Ian
"When the Carpet Monster tells you it's full....
....it's time to tidy the workbench"

Confuscious (maybe)

JoeP

Well, there is only one Neustrashimy in active service, and only two more were started. Russia might be able to spare a pair of Krivaks; despite their bluster, much of their navy is old and/or non-functional. With the current downturn in the price of energy, their one major source of income has melted away, so they may or may not be amenable to selling ships.
In want of hobby space!  The kitchen table is never stable.  Still managing to get some building done.

dragon

Quote from: Ian the Hunter-Gatherer on November 10, 2008, 02:49:05 AM
Quote from: dragon on November 09, 2008, 10:12:54 PM
the two Frigates entering Puerto Cabello Naval Base would probably be owned by the Venezuelan Navy. 
Precisely  :o

Ian
Given the current political climate in Venezuela the two frigates would probably be named ARBV Fidel Castro and ARBV Ernesto Guevara  >:( :banghead:
"As long as people are going to call you a lunatic anyway, why not get the benefits of it?  It liberates you from convention."- from the novel WICKED by Gregory Maguire.
  
"I must really be crazy to be in a looney bin like this" - Jack Nicholson in the movie ONE FLEW OVER THE CUCKOO'S NEST